Rail supply leaders concerned by UK rail market outlook

The Railway Industry Association (RIA) has called for the government to set out an investment schedule after a survey found almost half believe industry will contract in the next year.

A poll of 250 rail business leaders found 48% think it will contract compared to 26% who believe the rail supply industry will grow. The figures are nevertheless a small improvement on the 54% who expected the rail supply industry to get smaller 12 months ago.

The survey, carried out in September and October before the Budget at the end of last month, also shows that 83% think it likely there will be a hiatus in rail work over the next year. Potential reasons include the time taken to deliver rail reform under Great British Railways or uncertainty over enhancement or major project budgets.

In response to any hiatus, 51% will freeze/slow recruitment in response (compared to 44% last year). The other main measures set to be taken are prioritising work outside the UK (51%, up from 42%) and pausing or slowing plans to expand in the UK (35%).

46% of those polled also think their business will grow and 29% say they will contract in the coming year. Although largely consistent with 2023, RIA has said this is the lowest score of the last five years.

RIA Chief Executive, Darren Caplan, said, “The conclusions of the survey reflect a second year of rail supply leaders being concerned about the outlook for the wider UK rail market and anxiety about their own business’s prospects more specifically.

“Over 80% forecast a hiatus in work in the year ahead, with a detailed timeline for rail reform or firm commitments for the delivery of major projects still awaited. This uncertainty adversely impacts recruitment, expansion plans and suppliers, who will seek refuge in other sectors and overseas markets if more confidence fails to return.

“The results from the survey confirm RIA’s longstanding calls for more certainty from Government on which national, regional and local rail work – both track and train – it wants the railway industry to deliver in the months ahead.”

Caplan called on the Government to set out “a clear roadmap for rail investment as soon as possible”, which includes plans for rail enhancements as well as rolling stock procurement and refurbishment.

Labour’s first Budget in 14 years, delivered on October 30, confirmed HS2 will reach London Euston, and it was “in the early stages of agreeing a rolling stock strategy that will bring stability” to the rail industry.

“Visibility of these plans would provide rail suppliers with the certainty they need, ultimately helping to deliver the rail services customers – both passengers and freight – want and the value for money taxpayers expect,” Caplan added.