Second National Infrastructure Assessment sets 30-year agenda for action

Improved infrastructure to boost economic growth across the UK and meet climate goals is both achievable and affordable if the right policy steps are taken now, according to the government's independent advisers on infrastructure strategy.

The second National Infrastructure Assessment – a five yearly review conducted by the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) – sets out a programme of transformation for the country's transport, energy and other key networks over the next 30 years.

Writing in the report’s foreword, Sir John Armitt, Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, said, “The good news is that modern, reliable infrastructure can support economic growth, help tackle climate change and enhance the natural environment.

“We stand at a pivotal moment in time, with the opportunity to make a major difference to this country’s future. But we need to get on with it.

“People often talk about infrastructure as the backbone of our economy: what our infrastructure needs now is the collective mettle to turn commitments into action that will reap rewards for decades to come.”

NIC’s recommendations in relation to transport include:

• Major public transport upgrades in England’s most congested cities to unlock economic growth

• An urgent and comprehensive review of rail priorities for the North and the Midlands following government’s recent decision on High Speed 2

• Better maintenance of existing roads and targeted enhancements to speed up journeys on underperforming parts of the national road network.

The assessment stresses the constraints that urban congestion places on economic growth, and the likely increases in future transport demand within city regions. It calls for action to tackle road congestion and improve public transport, leading with investment of £22bn between 2028 and 2045 in mass transit schemes in the cities outside London.

These proposals, it says, should initially be focused on places with the greatest likely capacity need and growth potential – Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds and Manchester and their city regions. With these four regions receiving around two thirds of the total, the remaining one third should be allocated to other cities, where a strong case can be made on the basis of connectivity or capacity.

To increase capacity sufficiently to meet future demand, NIC’s assessment indicates that city regions benefiting from major new public transport schemes will also need to identify ways to reduce the volume of car journeys into their city centres. The Commission, however, is clear that the design and sequencing of demand management schemes should be for local leaders to decide and are only likely to be appropriate once public transport options offer passengers a viable alternative to using private cars.

The Commission further recommends that five year transport budgets should be devolved to all local authorities responsible for strategic transport, and that government should agree a long term funding settlement for London. This will help places develop locally led infrastructure strategies which complement housing and land use development, and help ensure that transport infrastructure is accessible for all groups in society.

The report stresses the need to accelerate the rollout of public charge points for electric vehicles to ensure that government’s expectation of 300,000 chargers by 2030 is met. This will require continued year-on-year grow of around 30 per cent for the next seven years.

The assessment proposes increased funding for the maintenance of longer distance road and rail networks, with targeted enhancements to networks to improve underperforming routes between key locations.

The reports also offers new analysis on where such routes lie, suggesting these are used as a starting point for discussions with local leaders and sub national transport bodies to develop a pipeline of future interurban road projects. The Commission recommends that by the end of 2026, government should develop an integrated strategy for interurban transport to frame the development of Control Period 8 for rail (2029-34) and Road Investment Strategy 4 (2030-35).

Given the uncertainties about the pace of the transition to electric vehicles and future traffic demand, the Commission proposes that government should establish a monitoring and review regime for its transport decarbonisation plans. This would help inform more responsive policy making if emissions from transport do not reduce as anticipated, including through the proposed interurban transport strategy.

The report is upfront about the need for significant public and private investment in infrastructure if the UK is to rebalance its economic geography, meet climate obligations, improve resilience and enhance the natural environment.

Transport constitutes the largest proportion of government investment in economic infrastructure, and the Commission recommends this should be held flat in real terms at an average of almost £28 billion per year between 2025 and 2040. This includes increasing investment in urban transport as a proportion of all transport spending from 40 per cent in 2025 to 50 per cent by 2040, reflecting the economic importance of cities, including a significant increase to fund the new public transport schemes in major cities.

Government is expected to respond formally to the Assessment within 12 months.