Window closing on infrastructure catch up, warn government advisers
Failure to go further, faster over the next five years on plans for infrastructure delivery could constrain economic growth and threaten climate targets, according to the National Infrastructure Commission, the government’s official infrastructure advisers.
The Commission’s Infrastructure Progress Review 2024 calls for a concerted catch up programme accelerating policy implementation and delivery to ensure the country’s infrastructure is fit for the future.
On transport NIC identifies the following priorities for the next five years:
• Government should offer necessary financial support to mayoral combined authorities to ensure the stability and reliability of their existing public transport networks over the next two years.
− during this two year period, the government should work with mayoral combined authorities to consider the long term sustainability and resilience of existing funding models for public transport systems, and the extent to which additional or new sources of funding will be necessary to secure this
− this funding model should recognise the full value of public transport systems to people, the economy and the environment, and consider the revenue models used by urban transport systems in comparable countries.
• Government should commit long term capital funding of £22 billion for major transport projects in cities from 2028 to 2045. The initial focus of this funding should be cities which are likely to have the greatest need for increased capacity. Commission analysis suggested that these cities are Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds and Manchester. However, other cities are also likely to be able to make the case for investment, likely on a smaller scale, and so, a proportion of the £22 billion should be made available to these cities too.
• Government needs to move faster in devolving powers and funding for local transport to local authorities. To that end:
− by the next spending review, government should have agreed single multiyear financial settlements for existing mayoral combined authorities to invest in local priorities, and then continue to roll these out to new mayoral combined authorities
− all county councils and unitary authorities that remain responsible for strategic transport planning should be provided with devolved five year transport budgets by the end of 2025, sufficient to cover maintenance, renewals and small to medium enhancements
− £8 billion a year should be available for devolved transport budgets for local authorities outside London, consisting of a combination of central government grants and locally raised funds
− government should replace short term funding deals for Transport for London with five year funding settlements, sufficient to enable both the renewal and enhancement of London transport.
• Government should develop an integrated strategy for interurban transport to frame the development of Control Period 8 for rail (2029 to 2034) and Road Investment Strategy 4 (2030 to 2035). This strategy should incorporate:
− a long term vision for network performance and resilience which prioritises maintenance and renewal of the existing road and rail networks, ensuring proportionate resilience to climate change impacts
− a pipeline of strategic improvements to the road network over the next 30 years, with improvements targeted at underperforming sections of the network, aligning schemes with complementary policies for economic growth and giving initial priority to interventions in regions with underperforming productivity.
− a new comprehensive and long term plan for rail enhancements to address the capacity and connectivity challenges in the North and Midlands, alongside completion of East West Rail and a portfolio of targeted network enhancements across the country.
• Government must accelerate deployment of public electric vehicle charge points to reach its expectation of 300,000 public charge points by 2030 and keep pace with sales of electric vehicles.
• Government should, by 2025, establish a monitoring and review regime for its transport decarbonisation plans that reflects the uncertainty in carbon emissions outcomes from surface transport.
• Government should support industry to decarbonise road freight by 2050, through ensuring the sector is prepared for the infrastructure requirements of zero emission heavy goods vehicles.
And on the cancellation of HS2 and the Government’s proposed Network North programme, NIC comments, “the cancellation of the later stages of High Speed 2 has created significant uncertainty for both urban and interurban transport networks. There are adverse consequences for certain cities, which have based their economic growth plans around delivery of the project in full. The government's Network North plan sets out a programme of new rail schemes, but greater specificity is needed regarding the scope, cost, benefits and schedule for the schemes individually and as a package.”
Furthermore the Commission believes “existing infrastructure is a constraint on future passenger and freight growth. Capacity and connectivity cannot be materially improved north of Birmingham without further infrastructure investment.”
To enable passenger growth in the future, the report says, “a ‘do nothing’ scenario north of the proposed [Handsacre junction in Staffordshire] is not sustainable”, while also nothing that major improvements to both inter-urban transport and local transport networks are affordable within indicative spending limits set for the Commission by government.
Commission chair Sir John Armitt concludes, “A window remains to ensure that practical delivery plans are in place, backed up by the necessary public and private funding, to help achieve economic and environmental goals that will improve life for British households. But the window is closing, at least if we don’t want to delay those benefits and compound the disruption of recent years.”