Spearheading change as we emerge from the pandemic
The disruption created by covid has reinforced the need to think about how transport can contribute to a positive future, while managing the day to day safely and efficiently, writes Ben Plowden, an associate with PA Consulting
Covid has demonstrated that travel habits are not as fixed as everyone assumed and the transport sector faces huge challenges as we emerge from the pandemic. The continued reduction in public transport demand and related issues of reduced fare income and the risk of a car-led recovery are particularly acute problems.
The war in Ukraine has further highlighted the importance of reducing our dependence on fossil fuels in the transport sector and the economy more widely.
One key issue for transport leaders is whether the changes to people’s lifestyles and travel habits triggered by the pandemic are permanent. The National Infrastructure Commission has developed scenarios to analyse the likelihood of the impact of covid leading to permanent changes in behaviour and hence in future infrastructure requirements.
“The pandemic has forced us to confront the fact that things we took for granted may not be as certain as we thought”
Significantly for transport leaders, the NIC’s analysis suggests that the transport sector has a much higher potential for long-term behaviour change than other sectors such as digital or utilities. For instance, annual public transport trips over the next 30 years could vary by as much as 25 per cent between the NIC scenarios with the highest and lowest levels of behaviour change.
The NIC points out that transport could also experience significant changes in the pattern of demand. This has important implications for networks built to manage peak capacity. More flexible working might flatten peak public transport demand, reducing the level of capacity needed. And key tipping points could be triggered, such as a small rise in traffic leading to severe congestion or a small reduction in passenger demand and revenue making some public transport services unviable.
“Disruption offers an opportunity for transport leaders and their organisations to harness ingenuity in how they respond to this uncertainty”
Considerable uncertainty will remain around the long-term impacts of the pandemic on travel and transport. Yet the disruption caused by the pandemic offers an opportunity for transport leaders and their organisations to harness ingenuity in how they respond to this uncertainty.
Transport organisations will need to protect, nurture and task their most strategic thinkers and ingenious teams to focus on what happens next. These teams can focus on longer-term goals relating to social, economic and environmental sustainability, along the way finding entirely new ways of working and spearheading real change in their sectors.
Transport customers want a seamless experience in planning and making journeys and we should take heed of lessons from the pandemic which demonstrated the benefits of collaboration, whether in terms of vaccine development or the ventilator challenge.
With the significant £600 billion UK government investment in infrastructure, we need to seize this opportunity to ensure infrastructure planning and operational management better joins-up those stakeholders who influence the start and end of journeys (eg where and how we live, work, socialise) with the transport providers who connect people to these activities.
The opportunity ahead
The pandemic has forced us to confront the fact that things we took for granted, such as a continued growth in mass daily commuting into town and city centres, may not be as certain as we thought. But in all scenarios safe, accessible, integrated and affordable transport systems – particularly those that support public transport, walking and cycling – will be critical to the recovery from covid and to meet wider goals, including decarbonisation, levelling up and improving public health. Customers will need to be firmly at the heart of both day-to-day operations and longer-term planning of these systems.
Covid has reinforced the need to think about how transport can contribute to a positive future, while managing the day to day safely and efficiently. Continued close collaboration between the key actors in planning, funding and running our transport systems will be critical.
National Government should create a sustainable and integrated policy, regulatory, fiscal and financial framework for the UK’s national, regional and local transport networks. Regional and local authorities can take advantage of the further devolution promised in the Levelling Up White Paper to plan for and manage transport services that reflect local priorities and aspirations. The private sector should bring its customer focus and commercial nous. Voluntary and community organisations should continue to make the case for customers’ interests and continuing improvements in the nation’s transport.
With all the key players bringing their ingenuity, creativity and commitment to the process, transport will be able to fulfil its role in recovering from the pandemic and delivering a sustainable future.
Ben Plowden recently joined PA Consulting’s transport team. Prior to this, Ben held a number of senior roles at Transport for London including Director of Strategy and Planning, and coordination of TfL’s covid Restart and Recovery Programme. Before working at TfL, Ben was the founding Chief Executive of the national charity Living Streets and senior campaigner on energy and natural resources at the Campaign for the Protection of Rural England.