2025: Removing the pain from catching the plane

The Transport Secretary’s support of airport expansion highlights rail’s role in increasing public transport use. Heathrow Southern Rail (HSR) is a proposed new railway linking Heathrow to railway lines south of London. Improved rail links can drive economic growth and housing, but shifting travel behaviour requires affordability, reliability, and convenience to compete with car travel.

Keypoints

The Transport Secretary’s London Gatwick (LGW) decision emphasises importance of heavy rail to increase public transport mode share.

LGW rail capacity heavily constrained, single artery, single point of failure. Network Rail’s position is Brighton Main Line already at capacity. 

Unlike LGW, LHR has multiple opportunities for compass point rail access.

If Heathrow Southern Rail (HSR) is privately funded, what do we need from Government? Usage undertaking required to reduce traffic risk to acceptable level and allow economic cost of capital.

Also needs CAA agreement to RAB addition to provide funding contribution, as was the case with Heathrow’s contribution to Crossrail. CAA surface access policy is key.

On wider picture CAA historically only recognised their primary duty to airport users. More recently, HSR and others’ representations have resulted in commitment to have appropriate regard to their secondary environmental duty in H8 (the next control period from January 2026), recognising pathway to net zero.

HSR supports Thames Tideway model of a Senior Reference Group to bring key actors together – CAA, ORR, DfT, GBR, TfL etc.

HSR’s proposed service patterns do not introduce more services onto the GWML, although recognise issue of introducing performance risk. However, Thameslink delivers high frequency services from large number of branches through central core.

How does Government’s drive for growth relate to the decarbonisation agenda. The political mood music is that growth (including Heathrow expansion) still has to meet environmental targets.

New transport links create new highly connected places, in turn creating new opportunities for new communities, not necessarily related to Heathrow airport.

Example of bus depots – ten years ago, seen as a very bad neighbour because of noise and air quality. Now electrification of fleets allows high density development around what are superbly connected interchanges. 

Land value capture – HSR recognises TfL research of Elizabeth Line early outcomes, difficult to capture value for rail schemes, but wider economic benefits accrue to local communities.

Government clear that ramping up housing is second priority after growth. Can HSR help make the case for transport enhancements supporting densification or new towns?

Current RTPI study is learning from international examples of new towns. Task force investigating options for sites.

HSR is perhaps the wrong name for the scheme, suggests priority is Heathrow passengers and staff. Lord Hendy for example instead recognises wider benefits of transformative benefits of transport. 

Barking Riverside a good example of a new station creating opportunities for development.

Venice’s Rialto bridge an interesting parallel – the end points of this single connection drive dramatic economic and social vitality.

Heathrow is instead an island of development surrounded by fields with horses grazing - a stark contrast compared to high tech hubs around other major European airports.

Manchester now aligning the Bee network with spatial planning.

The aviation industry needs a social licence to operate. Government has bought into growth, relying on SAF to justify no demand reduction measures and instead increase capacity. Flying may become more expensive but there’s no intention of trying to reduce travel.

Has Uber changed airport access journey choice – experience suggests many passengers get dropped off at Piccadilly line stations. The Uber waiting areas at LHR provide a poor passenger experience.

Compare LHR onward travel costs with Prague - 1 Euro ticket into city centre on public transport.

Rail grew 16% last year, at the top end of the forecast range in Steer’s report https://www.riagb.org.uk/common/Uploaded%20files/Policy/Future%20of%20Rail/Future%20of%20Rail%20Demand%20Report.pdf 

Can HSR’s business case be improved, for example front loading of revenues. Are there any other sources than farebox?

Potential hypothecation of Terminal Drop Off Charges, ‘polluter pays’ model. 

HSR forecasts conservative – WebTAG doesn’t allow modelling of new demand generated as a result of new journey opportunities. Crossrail and Borders Railway show inadequacies of current tools.

Government wants growth to deliver benefits to whole UK – Heathrow expansion pitched as delivering national benefits through supply chain. HSR private funding releases public funding for schemes which have no likelihood of private finance.

Likelihood of future shocks, pandemic or similar unexpected event. Risk in using steady state assumptions, instead recognise the lessons of the past 10 years, emphasises the case for not being dependent on airport traffic.

Issue of the ‘Convenience burden,’ so remove barriers – eg: HK/Seoul city centre check in. Asian models designed for passenger convenience. 

Critical importance of improving the public transport experience to compete with convenience of car door to door.

Lufthansa introduced through ticketing but requires huge cultural shift. If electrification removes road emissions, car becomes an even more attractive option, especially for families and/or travellers with luggage.

Over last 20 years, significant changes in travel behaviour, exacerbated by covid. Domestic commuting, business and shopping demand decreased while leisure travel increases. The UK’s population has also grown.

In UK, car is strong default choice, pattern of only using public transport if car not feasible.  Heathrow staff surveys show the challenge of changing behaviour – despite high awareness of public transport/car sharing alternatives, very high percentage single use car.

Affordability and service availability/reliability are key to changing behaviours.

Participants

Mike D’Alton, Director of Strategic Growth, WSP

Hiro Aso, Transit Hubs sector lead, Jacobs

Edd Burton, Head of Advisory Services, Aecom

Darren Caplan, Chief Executive, Railway Industry Association

Dr. Nima Dadash-Zadeh, Transport and Business Analytics, Huddersfield Business School & Executive Committee Member, UK Universities’ Transport Studies Group

Charlie French, Investment Planning Manager, Transport for the North

Katie Hulland, Global Rail Transit lead, Turner & Townsend

Ripin Kalra, Technical Director, Urban Development & Resilience, ICF

Glenn Lyons, Professor of Future Mobility, UWE Bristol & CIHT President

Andrew Nash, Head of Business Development, Balfour Beatty Major Projects

Anthony Smith, Chair, Heathrow Area Transport Forum

Heathrow Southern Railway

Baroness Jo Valentine, Chair

Mark Livock, Chief Executive

Steven Costello, Director